What is the future of the pre-salt?

Brazil has high hopes in much it can do with the resources generated when it becomes a major exporter of oil from the pre-salt.

The main question is how much the pre-salt oil can contribute to the much needed resources to projects in the areas of education and health, the two major Brazilian problems, if international oil prices fall due to American self-sufficiency.

The pre-salt oil is the most expensive in the world because of the enormous difficulties of operating in so deep and so far from the coast waters.

The United States is approaching self-sufficiency in oil and shale gas. If and when this happens, there will be overproduction of oil in the world.

In this case, there will be two hypotheses: a) For strategic and environmental reasons the USA will keep their deposits as reserves and continue to import; b) For economic reasons and to improve the balance of payments the USA would become exporters of oil and gas. In both cases the price of a barrel of oil will drop to very low levels, even more in the second case, the most likely, not only to liberate Europe from the withers imposed by Russia, but also to maintain economic hegemony on the Chinese threat.

In the first case, if there is no self-sufficiency or the USA opting to continue importing and the Brazilian pre-salt producing enough to supply the domestic and export at high prices, profits, royalties and taxes will generate huge sums applicable in educational and medical projects.

On the other hand, if the USA, which now imports a hugeness of oil from various countries, achieves self-sufficiency, indeed, the international price of the product will fall, affecting the economies of all producers, including Brazil, if the production of pre-salt becomes important, as expected.

In this case, Brazil could meet their needs with imported oil at prices below the pre-salt production cost, which would remain as a reserve for over fifty years. Petrobras would continue supplying the domestic market with either expensive oil from pre-salt, or with cheaper imported oil, but most probably would not have the expected huge income.

To get an idea, currently (2014), Japan and Korea pay $ 14 per thousand cubic feet of gas from Qatar, the Russian Gazprom charges $ 12 for gas supplies to Europe, while the price of gas in the United States is only USD $ 2.90, a price drop of 80% since 2008 resulting in an annual savings of $ 100 billion to the country's trade balance.

The North American shale gas is a serious threat to Russian gas and Putin uses its media and propaganda power to try to prevent the United States from becoming global suppliers, including supporting American environmentalists. A big geopolitics sickle battle.

Of course, there are many variables, both economic, and environmental and geopolitical. Also, one can’t ignore the interests of those big American oil companies and their lobbyists, and even more those of the world biggest oil companies outside the USA. But the economic facts are impressive, and my concern that the dream will not realize seems very real.

It should be noted, the artificial low imported gasoline prices that Petrobras is being forced to practice by government policies almost completely eliminated the Brazilian ethanol industry.

That's why I haul this discussion in an attempt to seek a solution to what seems to be an important threat: the frustration of the pre-salt promises invalidating all hopes of financing Brazilian programs in health and education.

I will greatly appreciate receiving comments and critiques on these assumptions.